Scenarios

Scenarios is a tool for modeling different scenarios from a case base and comparing their results.

To get started, select the Scenarios button to make a base case scenario from the current project. Once created, add as many new scenarios as desired in the root node and edit it to make the appropriate changes that will distinguish them from the base case. Calculate the scenarios and review result differences as described below.

Getting to know the Scenarios Interface

Changes made to the base case are also applied to all other scenarios. Changes made to the Econ model used by the base case are also applied to the scenarios unless they use a different Econ model (see next note).

Different scenarios can have different economic models associated and a change made to the associated Econ model when editing a scenario is only applied to that scenario. Therefore, if you make changes to the Econ model you need to save it before calculating the Scenarios. Similarly, changes made to an associated Globals file need to be saved before calculating, but since all scenarios share a single Globals file this action will affect both the base case and all its scenarios.

If you make a change to a spreadsheet linked to your scenarios you will need to make a "dummy" change in the base case scenario to force a recalculation of all scenarios.

The following right-click options are available for the root in the navigation tree:

Add new scenario: Create a new scenario. In principle it will not contain any changes i.e. differences with the base project.
Execute base project: Simulate the base Plan project.
Execute all scenarios: Simulated all scenarios currently defined (including the base project).
Edit base project: Open the base project in the PetroVR Plan general window.

The following right-click options are available for base project and scenarios in the navigation tree:

Rename: Rename the currently selected scenario. Note that you cannot rename the base project from the Scenarios window.
Duplicate: Duplicate the current scenario.
Delete: Delete the current scenario. Note that you cannot delete the base project from the Scenarios window.
Ignore: Do not include this scenario in the next simulation run. An ignored scenario is grayed out in the Tree View. It is still fully editable but will not appear in the Differences tabs. Use this option to speed up scenario simulations by excluding those scenarios not currently relevant without deleting them. Note that the base case cannot be excluded.
Edit: Open the currently selected scenario in the PetroVR Plan window.
Execute: Simulate only the currently selected scenario.

The following right-click options are available for scenarios (not the base project):

Send all changes to base project: Apply all the changes that make up the currently selected scenario to the base project. As a result, the base project will become identical with the scenario.
Save the scenario as a new project: Create a PetroVR project from the current scenario, that is, save a new .pvr file based on the base project plus all the changes that make up the scenario. Notice that this will not open the new project, and will not affect your current PetroVR Plan or Scenarios session in any way.
Save the economic model associated to this scenario: Only available when changes have been made to the economic model associated with the currently selected scenario. This command will save the modified economic model as a new .eco file.

Scenarios is based on the PetroVR Change System: a scenario consists basically of a set of changes that are applied to the base case. The change list for a scenario is available when the scenario branch is selected in the navigation tree. You can Delete/Cut/Copy/Paste items in the scenario change lists (only Copy in the base case change list). You cannot Delete, Cut or Paste changes in a scenario that is currently open in the Plan window.

PetroVR users who do probabilistic modeling, can take advantage of the Scenarios tool by means of the Monte Carlo on Scenarios option.

Some tools of the PetroVR suite offer the possibility to generate scenarios from iterations in order to analyze the specific conditions of a particular iteration, or to use them as the basis for creating a new variation of the model. These include probabilistic results from Monte Carlo, where an option to Create scenarios is available on specific Cross Plots and Data type results; and Sensitivity on Variable Values, Sensitivity on Variable Distributions and Spider, which provide a link to Make scenarios on their main control windows.

Creating Scenarios from Monte Carlo Iterations

If you load a scenario model onto a project other than the one it had originally been associated with, the association will be updated to the current project; i.e, the current project will become the base case to which the various changes making up the scenarios are applied.

Note also that if you edit a scenario (not the base project) in the PetroVR Plan window, the base project will still be open though not visible at the moment. In this case you cannot close the PetroVR Plan window; you need to restore the base project from the Scenarios window.

You cannot save a PetroVR Econ model when editing a scenario.

New scenarios are named by default using the name of the Plan project plus a numeric suffix. If you rename the Plan project all automatically named scenarios will be renamed accordingly, while scenarios that you have renamed manually will not.

The options to make/create scenarios from other tools will close the Scenarios model currently open to begin a new one.